Global warming and predictive models

According to Andrew Monaghan in his article, “Climate Models Overheat Antarctica,” Antarctica’s warming has been overestimated by computers models. At first, real temperature data from Antarctica were compared with data estimated by computer models. As a result, they found that the true value of increasing temperature in Antarctica was overvalued by 250 percent more than real value. In fact, this error was caused by not considering water vapor, which is different from one place to another. In conclusion, even though the current computer models are better than past models, they are far from be accurate methods to know a good prediction about Antarctica’s climate; moreover, to know the cause of error can help researchers to improve computer models.

It is very interesting to know that researchers are working about how to obtain accurate predictions on Antarctic’s climate. Nowadays, to build models to predict Antarctic’s climate is important because they help us to know the size of future problems, find their solutions, and give security to the population.

To build good models in order to get reliable information is not easy. In addition, these kinds of models are very complicated because they should consider a lot of variables. If you obtain a high-quality model, you will be able to know more about the problem. You can know the related factors which are affecting in negative or positive way the result.

After that, models help us to discover answers to problems. In this case, the responses will be about global warming. To know the future values of temperature by using accurate models is very important because you can analyze this data. Then, you can conclude if there is a change in climate or not. I think that in this moment, there is not change climate because climate continues being the same in each country or region. Finally, it is possible to discover solutions in advance.

Furthermore, if investigators can identify some problems in advance and find their answers, the people will feel more secure. However, if researchers don’t have enough tools or adequate methods to solve the problems, human population and other living forms can suffer terrible consequences. For example, Mario Molina discovered that substances named CFCs were destroying the ozone layer. After that, this problem has been reduced.

To summarize, any model that can predict Antarctica’s climate is important because it has to do with future problems like climate change. After they are evaluated, they can help to know the problems better, discover some solutions, and calm people. For these reasons, it is very important to study models and government should encourage researchers, and give them more support.

REFERENCES
Monaghan, A. (2008, May 13). Climate models overheat Antarctica. Space Daily. Retrieved May 23, 2009, from LexisNexis database.