Warming in Antarctica

By Francisco Izquierdo

Abstract
To summarize, Antarctica is not cooling, because scientists did not contemplate the long-term, or different zones of Antarctica in their analyses; in addition, they conclude on a theoretical base, but a recent study considered real data and theories and the result was that Antarctica is warming. It is necessary to make more serious studies about this issue in order to have more scientific evidence about these last surprising results, which point out Antarctica is warming, not cooling.

Are you sure about your thoughts about global warming? Global warming has became one of the most important subjects related with environmental science. At the same time it caused an intense debate (Staff, 2009). There are many scientific researchers in favor of global warming, but there are a lot of people that think the contrary as well. Similarly, there are groups that support global warming such as environmentalists and investigators. In contrast, there exist a group, the economists, that disagree with global warming. The increase of temperature in some areas of the world is showed as one reason by doomsayers. But, the point of view of the contraries is that it is normal. The reasons are obvious because some of the environmentalists think that the economic development and human activities are causing the global warming (Knight, 2008). To speak about the global warming and its consequences is difficult. First, if there is a global warming, it will be tangible in all continents. Now, the Antarctic continent is the focus because it presents rare behavior about its temperature. In addition, Antarctica is very important because there is located 90% of ice, if it is melted by high temperatures, it could cause major damage to people and nature in general. Most people know and feel that Earth is warming even though scientists have showed that Antarctica is cooling. To know about increasing or decreasing of temperature in this continent is very important, because any change in Antarctica’s weather pattern could cause an increase of environmental and geographic harms. For example, some species of animals and plants could become extinct. In the same way, because the sea will raise its level, some cities will suffer human and material loss, and loss of flora and fauna as well. In general, Antarctica is not cooling, because researchers consider few years in their analysis, only a part of Antarctica, and theories about phenomena; moreover, a recent study, which was published last January, 2009, shows that Antarctica is warming.

First of all, Antarctica is not cooling, because researchers have considered few years in their analysis. At any investigation, there are many steps, which should be rigorously considered such as materials and methods’ part. In this part, according to objectives of the study, the study should be delimited in time and space. The time considered, days, weeks, months or years, will permit us to conclude and obtain specific results and more precise. In this case, by studying and concluding about temperature trends in Antarctica, it is necessary to take long term data. To a major number of years considered on any study correspond a major accuracy in our conclusions and results, because in this case we are talking about climate, which considers temperature as one of the more important elements.
we can notice in the next researching, the authors took into account a different period of study. Therefore their conclusions are partial about temperature’s trend in Antarctica. “Incredibly, if you are interested in Antarctica temperature trends from the present back to 1982, the region has cooled. If you go from present back to 1966, the region has cooled. Like it or not, over the past four decades, and during the time of the greatest build-up of greenhouse gases, Antarctica has been cooling!” (Chapman, 2007, para. 4).

If you take data from a determined time, and then you analyze it, the results and inferences that you obtain will be valid only for this period. For instance, if yesterday and today at Carbondale, there is a temperature of 100 degrees, you cannot affirm that temperature at Carbondale in all 2009 year is high. In other words, Antarctica is not cooling.

Also, Antarctica is not cooling, because researchers have considered only a part of Antarctica. Going on with the variable space or place of study, it is important to decide according to objectives, the place where the samples will be taken. The reason is very simple; the decision or chosen space to take sample data, because it will allow us to infer only about this place. If you take sample over a determined place, your conclusions will be valid only to this place, it will not be valid for other places, which were not considered in the sample or study.

In the next researching, we can observe that the past studies only had considered part of Antarctica. In this case, Antarctica’s peninsula was studied. Therefore, we cannot conclude about all Antarctic continent. “It turns out that most of the Antarctic measurements in the past had been taken on a small peninsula, and not over the vast wind-blown expanse of the frozen continent” (Inhaber, 2002, para. 1). If you take samples only of one part of the whole, you will be able to conclude only about this part, and you can’t generalize your conclusions. For example, if you find that people from Mexico are very lazy, you cannot say that all people around the world are lazy too. In brief, Antarctica is not cooling because researchers only were considering one part of that continent in their analyses.

In addition, Antarctica is not cooling because researchers consider only theories about phenomena. The scientific method is one tool that helps us to create theories. However, this method is a cycle. For this reason, if one theory is created, it is necessary to continue researching in order to confirm it, because absolute truth doesn’t exist. For instance, the next theory is considered to conclude that Antarctica is cooling. “The cooling trend of Antarctica agrees with the Sun-cosmic ray theory of climate change, which says when the Sun is more active, there are less cosmic rays to seed clouds, causing Antarctica to cool as the very white ice is more reflective than clouds, while the rest of the planet warms where clouds are more reflective than the ground, even in the Arctic. In contrast, the CO2 greenhouse theory predicts that the coolest part of the planet, Antarctica, should show the most warming due to the very low water vapour content in the air” ( Gregory, 2009, para. 17). I agree totally that this theory is the best way to explain many phenomena, but it will be created on the basis of reality, as in this case, climate, which we can know by describing and measuring some variables such as temperature and precipitation.

Furthermore, according to a recent study, Antarctica is warming. “Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades” (Steig et al., 2009, para. 1). In this study that considered data of 50 years, from 1957 to 2006, and the measurements were taken over small peninsula, interior Antarctica, and east and east Antarctica too, Steig and his colleges found an increasing of temperature of 0.5 °C (Steig et al., 2009). These results that show warming in Antarctica are supported by many institutions and researchers such as The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth Institute, and Michael Oppenheimer. “It is important to recognize that the widely-cited ‘Antarctic cooling’ appears, from the limited data available, to be restricted only to the last two decades” (Steig and Schmidt, 2004, para. 3.). Indeed, global warming is affecting all continents (Mittelstaedt, 2009).

To summarize, Antarctica is not cooling, because scientists did not contemplate the long-term, or different zones of Antarctica in their analyses; in addition, they conclude on a theoretical base, but a recent study considered real data and theories and the result was that Antarctica is warming. It is necessary to make more serious studies about this issue in order to have more scientific evidence about these last surprising results, which point out Antarctica is warming, not cooling.


REFERENCES

Chapman, W.L. & Walsh, J.E. (2007). A Synthesis of Antarctic Temperatures. Journal of Climate, 20, 4096-4117

Gregory, K. (2009, March 3). Antarctica is cooling. Retrieved Jun 08, 2009, from http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/AntarcticaCooling.pdf.

Inhaber, H. (2002, July 27). Antarctica is cooling? Capitalism magazine. Retrieved June 08, 2009, from http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=1756.

Knight, M. (2008, OCTOBER 30). Data pins polar warming blame on humans. CNN. Com. Retrieved June 05, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Mittelstaedt, M. (2009, January 21). Antarctica not as chilly as thought. lobeandmail.com. Retrieved June 05, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Staff, W. (2009, February 27). Prehistoric Global Cooling Caused By CO2. Space Daily. Retrieved June 05, 2009, from LexisNexis database.

Steig, E. & Schmidt, G. (2004, December 3). RealClimate. Retrieved Jun 08, 2009, from http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=18.

Steig, E.J., Schneider, D.P., Rutherford, S.D., Mann, M.E., Comiso, J.C., & Shindell, D.T. (2009, January). Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature, 457, 459-463.